Monday, September 3, 2007

Mystified by the mob

By Pratap Bhanu Mehta The most corrosive crisis a society faces is often not manifested as a dramatic political episode. It rather reveals itself in periodic outbreaks of senseless violence or grim reminders of a society losing its moral compass. Just the random perusal of news for a couple of days, rioting in Agra, violence in Dohna, inhumane torture of a petty offender in Bhagalpur, road rage, a child dead because of petty street clashes, increasing crime, the sordid goings-on in a Delhi school, were all reminders of just how fragile social order can be. Given the dramatic character of political violence in India — terrorism, Naxalism, communalism — should we really worry about outbursts of violence that traffic accidents occasion? And in each instance don’t we have a ready structural explanation for violence, a master narrative that explains it all? When the state has no outlet for legitimate grievances, violence will erupt. The surprise is not that we often have senseless violence without an object; the surprise is that we don’t have more of it. After the now already forgotten Nithari, can any news of an insidious sickness creeping on Indian society really surprise us? But we focus on side issues: the morality of sting operations, the failures of the state, but side-step the fundamental question: why is India becoming a society with a reputation of preying on its own children in the most appalling ways one can imagine? There is an unspoken dread enveloping urban India: a new freedom producing new vulnerability, a new sophistication accompanied by a loss of innocence, a new sense of aspiration accompanied by a greater sense of danger. Different types of violence have their own psychology and sociology. But there is a thread that connects seemingly disparate forms of violence that lurk under the surface of our existence. The first is our attitudes to them. The minute we encounter such violence a kind of containment strategy sets in. We control the meaning of these events, by explaining them in terms of some master narrative: the omissions of the state, the inherited inequalities of society or the depravations of tradition. There is some truth to these attributions. But the ease and frequency with which these are invoked suggests not so much a diagnosis but an avoidance strategy. We oscillate between thinking that this is a violence that always happens elsewhere on the one hand, and it is over-determined and inevitable on the other. Either way this violence becomes something that does not demand our intervention. The second thing this violence draws our attention to is just how attenuated our conceptions of social order have become. Societies are complex entities, held together not so much by a state but by an amalgam of attributes: mores, traditions, sensibilities, sympathies, taboos, reciprocities, even an aesthetic. In a society that is rapidly changing, these are all coming under immense stress. Violent crime is a topic of great discussion. But the sum total of public discourse on this focuses on three lines of inquiry: lament for an age when the lower classes were supposedly more obedient than violent, poor law enforcement by the state, or a generalised explosion of greed. Indian cities have had, by comparative standards, relatively lower rates of crime. The reasons for this are not entirely clear. Was it the spatial layout of Indian cities? Was it the relatively intact authority of the family? Was it the relative lack of conspicuous consumption? Was it a certain civic culture that gave cities a distinctive hue? Or was it a form of living that made our outlook on life less edgy? In libidinal matters we are, across small towns, becoming a society moving from a society premised on secrecy, repression and control to a society where knowledge, publicity and individual experimentation are going to increase. But will this new age of freedom and access, of knowledge and individuality simply produce a culture of selfishness, crudeness and fatuity or a culture of integrity, sophistication and discrimination? The pathologies of social convention cannot be a defence of the pathologies of freedom. If the traditional moral anchors for relationships are not tenable, what will be the new foundations for those relationships? Will these changes combine with a cult of instrumentalism to always make Eros a dangerous and poisoned chalice? It is fatuous to assume that the state can be rationalised and made powerful enough to protect us from the depredations that large-scale social transformation might bring. The reason these acts of violence are significant is that they are early warnings of many things: of the increasing alienation of urban existence, of the fact that without stronger moral barriers the line between pathology and liberation can be very thin, of unchanelled rage that does not quite know how to articulate itself, and that creates the possibility of violence waiting to be mobilised. A little bit more pressure, an economic downturn or even greater increases in inequality, could snap the fragile sense of self that makes cities hold on. We rightly take solace in the fact that India has been resilient, in the face of terrorist violence, material deprivation. But this faith in resilience is also a form of avoidance: it prevents us from asking what the great transformation of our times means for social relationships and a sense of the self. The focus on the state and economy is crucial. But they seldom on their own determine what the security or character of life and self is going to be like in any society. Despite the explosion of aspirations, and feverish activity, will we escape the charge that Muktibodh levelled against urbanising India decades ago: that it was a font of meaninglessness, disguised by divertissements? It would be premature to engage in pessimism. But the striking absence of self-reflection on emerging pathologies in society should worry us. Broken states can be fixed through collective action, economies can be energised through policy, but sick societies are harder to cure.
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Sunday, September 2, 2007

Meet terror’s latest tentacle

By M H AHSAN 

Intelligence agencies are frantically trying to unravel their new nightmare, which goes by the name of Harkat-ul-Jihad-e-Islami

In 1998 when intelligence agencies started combing the heights of Kargil after Indian troops had reclaimed it they found several documents and letters written in Bengali. At that time the significance of their find did not sink in. 

But now, over the last two years, not only is the significance sinking in with telling effect, the hierarchy of terror outfits is also getting clearer. There are two versions of Harkat-ul-Jihad-e-Islami (HuJI) - the Pakistani version, on which the agencies have always trained their spotlight on, and the Bangladeshi one, which has emerged out of the shadows with devastating force.

“HuJI has been successful in India due to local participation,” say a senior official of Research and Analysis Wing (RAW).

Born during the Afghan Mujahideen operations, HuJI was never expected to be a threat to India. Taking a leaf out of BPOs

Ever since President Pervez Musharraf joined the US War on Terror after the 9/11 attacks, the Pakistani intelligence establishment has been under immense pressure to clean up their act. The emergence of HuJI-Bangladesh can be traced back to this pressure. Most of the actual operations being carried out by HuJI-Pakistan were siphoned off to HuJI-Bangladesh.

The transfer of operations was followed by funds.

“It was as if Pakistan had taken a leaf out of Indian BPOs. The cost of carrying out an operation from Bangladesh was significantly cheaper,” an intelligence officer told HNN. “Everything from raw materials - ammonium nitrate, triggers and RDX - to personnel (read jihadis) was cheaper.” 

But the change of base also meant a change in focus. The Pakistani intelligence establishment reduced its focus on Jammu and Kashmir. While everyone from the international community to the Indian Army rejoiced in the declining militant activity in the state, the new targets became India’s financial and economic heart - Mumbai, Hyderabad, Bangalore and Chennai.

“The Pakistani intelligence establishment has changed its strategy. It now realises that the only way to hobble India is to hit it where it hurts most - economy,” says a top intelligence official.

Local muscle is deadly
HuJI has probably the largest number of non-Kashmiri supporters from within India. HuJI’s stunning attacks have been mounted by local recruits. “HuJI changed dynamics of terrorism. They minimised the role of foreigners, recruited locals, trained them in terror tactics,” an official says.

Investigators believe among HuJI’s most significant recruits is Shahid Bilal- key suspect behind the recent Hyderabad blasts. Bilal is suspected to be involved in all three attacks in Hyderabad - suicide attack on headquarters of STF in 2005, attack on Mecca Masjid and last week’s blasts.

Cog in global terror network
A key man behind HuJI-Bangladesh was Mufti Abdul Hannan, an Afghan veteran who had education in Uttar Pradesh’s Deoband, one of the world’s largest Islamic schools imparting training in the ultra-conservative Wahabi beliefs. 

“Today HuJI seems to have internalised and successfully executed the strategy of global jihad networks of Europe, Iraq and other areas. They are making bombs out of chemicals commonly available,” says an official. “This has significantly brought down the risk of an operation.” 

The greatest success of HuJI comes from the fact that they have able to create their India cells-where the brain and the foot soldiers are all mostly Indians. “It is their success, and our biggest challenge,” says an official who has spent a long period in Kashmir through the 1990s.

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Thursday, August 30, 2007

India looks to tap carbon market

By Siddharth Srivastava

It is a market expected to grow to US$100 billion in the near future, and Indian firms want to reap some of the benefits. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol allows richer countries to trade their emission-reduction targets with developing countries by buying carbon credits earned by the latter for projects reducing emission of greenhouse gases, those suspected of accumulating in the Earth’s atmosphere and trapping the sun’s heat, contributing to global warming.

Recent estimates predict that uncontrolled carbon emissions could cost the global economy more than $200 billion annually by 2030 unless the pollution levels are controlled. Environmental group Greenpeace has said that shifting to renewable energy and reducing carbon emissions could save Southeast Asia $80 billion annually.

Indeed, with the Western world (read Europe and Canada, not the United States yet) looking at the CDM seriously, Indian firms do not want to lose out on the business opportunity due to investments in clean technology.

Recently, an Indian firm won the single largest issuance of carbon credits by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which awarded 5.4 million carbon credits to two projects owned by India’s JSW Steel. One project was issued 4 million carbon credits, the single biggest credit.

The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry has said that Indian companies may earn almost $4 billion through carbon-credit sales in the near future.

Institutional mechanism
Indeed, an institutional mechanism is quickly emerging in India to take advantage of CDM. This is critical. Given the vast country that is India, it is essential that an organized framework reaches the grassroots level where numerous green projects could be eligible under CDM.

This month, the country’s largest lender and oldest bank, the State Bank of India (SBI), tied up with three entities to provide a comprehensive framework for industries to take advantage of CDM projects. State-owned SBI has the largest rural network in the world and exists in places where no private Indian or foreign bank will reach for some time to come. The entities that the bank has tied up with are Pune-based MITCON Consultancy Services, Ecosecurities India Pvt Ltd, and Cantor CO2E India Pvt Ltd.

“SBI proposes to provide a single-point delivery of services related to carbon credits/CDM under the Kyoto Protocol to its customers,” SBI chairman O P Bhatt said. These would include advisory services and value-added products such as securitization of carbon-credit receivables, delivery guarantees and escrow mechanism for carbon credits, apart from finance to implement CDM projects, he said.

“With so many potential buyers and sellers in this market, counter-party risk can become a key area in carbon-credits trading, and SBI, with its wide Indian and international presence, can play a major role here,” he said.

London-based EcoSecurities is a global leader in developing and trading carbon credits and has been expanding its presence in India. It structures and guides projects for reduction of greenhouse-gas emission, acting as the principal intermediary between the projects and the buyers of carbon credits.

CDM consultancy is already a big business in India, with revenues rising substantially over the past couple of years. Following in the footsteps of SBI, India’s largest private-sector bank, ICICI Bank Ltd, too announced that it has signed a memorandum of understanding with MITCON to service firms engaged in the CDM business.

“With global warming becoming a concern worldwide and the industry sensing the need to move on to CDM and green projects, this memorandum will be our platform to facilitate SMEs [small and medium-sized enterprises] to make this movement toward such projects,” Sanjeev Mantri, general manager of ICICI Bank, said in a statement.

Last December, the Industrial Development Bank of India Ltd (IDBI) entered a non-exclusive memorandum with Washington-headquartered International Finance Corp, the private-sector arm of the World Bank, to assist Indian companies jointly in CDM projects.

The two financial intermediaries have also been seeking to help companies realize the value of the carbon credits by selling them in global markets.

IDBI has a pool of industrial clients that can seek advice. However, it does not have the kind of exhaustive bridge SBI could be capable of extending. Last October, IDBI entered a similar non-exclusive memo with MITCON and later Germany-based KfW Bankengruppe.

Apart from the banking system, other forums are likely to emerge to help the growth of CDM projects in India.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has spoken about the need for India to tap the CDM potential. The federal government has constituted the National CDM Authority to evaluate, review and encourage projects. Many government projects such as the Delhi Metro are looking at the green option to earn carbon revenues.

India’s federal Parliament should be looking to legislate within this year whether to permit the Multi-Commodities Exchange (MCX) to trade carbon credits, the bourse’s joint managing director Lamon Rutten said in an interview recently. “We hope to get the approval,” Rutten said.

The permission to trade carbon credits would enable Mumbai-based MCX to proceed with establishing a platform to buy and sell certified emission reductions (CERs). Countries such as China, Australia, Singapore and New Zealand are looking at various options related to a carbon exchange. Trade in voluntary emission-reduction credits is spreading with new exchange-based initiatives in these countries.

Expectations high
Since carbon trading took off in India two years ago, domestic companies have earned about $500 million from carbon-credit sales, according to consulting firm Ernst & Young. India has cornered nearly 43% of CERs issued so far by the CDM executive board, the highest under the Kyoto Protocol. Seventeen percent of the CERs have been issued to China.

But the expected average annual income from registered projects through 2012 has China (44%) far ahead of India (15%), although India, with 259 projects, leads China (101) in the number of registered projects.

Indian expectations continue to be high. Recently, New Delhi has asked industry to bunch up CDM projects that can be traded in the current $30 billion global carbon-credit market. Because of the small size of CDM projects, Indian companies are unable to cash in the carbon credits, because of procedural costs.

SBI has said analysts peg the global carbon-trading market at $100 billion by 2010, and the Indian carbon market has the potential to supply 30-50% of the projected global market of 700 million CERs by 2012.

According to the director of the Environment and Forest Planning Commission, S K Panigrahi, Orissa, West Bengal and Jharkhand together can earn CERs of Rs10 billion ($244 million) by 2012 if they take to CDM. Orissa alone is capable of earning Rs2.5 billion in the way of CERs, he said. A number of coal-based as well as steel and aluminum units are being set up in eastern India.

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